A couple weeks ago, I published a piece from the Economic Times quoting an IMS study that predicted that India's drug market growth would slow to high single digits and that India would slip in the overall world rankings in market size from 8th to 11th. Today's Economic Times article quotes a Deloitte study that predicts India's drug maket will grow by 14.4% through 2016, at which time it will reach $27 B in size.
Deloitte says that India's growth will be challenged by several factors. "The outcome of of new product patents, drug price control, poor regulatory enforcement, inadequate health care infrastructure, shortage of skilled workforce, increasing patient expectations, ever-changing technology, and quality management and conformance to global standards act as critical barriers in delivering products and services in a sustainable manner."
Nevertheless, India has some things going for it. Namely, it has 119 manufacturing plants approved by FDA -- more than any other country. It accounts for 10% of global pharma production. It makes more than 400 different APIs. Deloitte says India has the opportunity to garner as much as $40 B in sales with 46 US drugs comping of patent by 2015.
Posted by Bruce Lehr Feb 17th 2014.