According to EP Vantage, 2014 will shape up to be a lesser year for blockbuster introductions than was seen in 2013. They project that only 3 drugs slated for 2014 launch will actually achieve > $1 B in annual sales by 2018. Reportedly, 10 such drugs hit the market last year that will break the $1 B barrier within 5 years -- monster launches included Biogen's Tecfidera ($5.1 B peak) and Gilead's Sovaldi ($7.4 B peak). One wild card lies in the mix however. It may be possible that Merck and BMS could get their PD-1 drugs to market in late 2014 and these are predicted to hit blockbuster status (peak > $5.6 B) -- for now they aren't part of the 2014 estimate. Neither are any of AbbVie's hepatitis C therapies which could also squeak into 2014.
The three projected blockbusters for 2014 mentioned in the report are:
- GSK's combination COPD therapy called Anoro Ellipta
- Lundbeck's depression disorder drug Brintellix
- Celgene's psoriatic arthritis drug Apremilast
Combined these 3 will hit a peak hovering around $4.3 B -- much smaller than even individual drugs Tecfidera and Sovaldi cited above. See Fierce Biotech.
Posted by Bruce Lehr Feb 6th 2014.