Today Fierce biotech went on record with its picks for the top 10 drug candidates in the biopharm pipeline. They note that these drugs aren't necessarily the top 10 drugs ranked by future analyst sales projections. Why? Because they've learned their lesson. In the past, using just the analysts touted future sales, they found a lot of high high risk drugs included in their list that never saw the light of day commercially -- many after fabulous flameouts in phase III.
So this list, uses a combination of future revenue projections tempered by the reality of expected clinical results and ability of the drug to gain market approval. Even so, if you believe the McKinsey report preceding this post, you will note many of these top 10 are likley to have wildly optimistic sales projections. But, this list does contain 5 cancer drugs, and the McKinsey report also indicated that the cancer drugs were one area where analysts forecasts were underestimated. This is presumed to be caused by cancer drugs ability to gain further approvals for other conditions than the first indication. In addition to the 5 cancer drugs, we have 2 drugs for Hep C, and one each for cystic fibrosis, LDL/cholesterol control, and diabetes. Check out the list here.
Posted by Bruce Lehr Oct 8th 2013.