A new report from the Chemical Pharmaceutical Generics Association (CPA) predicts that the market for CRO/CMO services will grow from $72 B in 2012 to $136 B in 2017, a CAGR of 13.6%. The CMO segment is predicted to grow from $47 B to $93 B during this time span (14.6% CAGR), while the CRO segment will move from $25 B to $43 B (11.4% CAGR).
Currently the US has the greatest market share of CRO/CMO business at 33.7% but this is predicted to decline to only 24.9% over this time span. Western European groups are also expected to decline from 25% to only 17.1%.
The big growers in the next 45 years will be in Asia-Pacific region. India is predicted to grow from only 8.3% to a share of 21.3% to become the number two share country in the world. China is also predicted to grow rapidly from 12.2% to 19.2% (note china outstripped by India in this span). Both countries will thus glean larger share than Europe in the next 5 years. See PharmaTimes.
I'm not sure I believe all this from an absolute magnitude point of view but I think it is at least directionally correct. Go East Young Man Go East.
Posted by Bruce Lehr Oct 29th 2013.