Fierce Biotech today published the top 10 new drugs with sales that lag the analysts' bullish pre-launch estimates. This ranking was based on drugs launched in the past 5 years that had been projected to earn blockbuster status. Unfortunately, thus far they have not and have not likely prospects for doing so:
- Pfizer's Relistor - Projected $865 M and Actual $37 M
- Intermune's Esbrist - Projected $917 M and Actual $132 M
- Vertex's Incivek - Projected $4.05 B peak and new peak $669 M
- Amarin's Vascepa - Projected peak $2 B and new $505 M
- GSK's Benlysta - Projected peak $2.8 B and new $696 M
- Takeda's Nesina - Projected $2.53 B peak and new $788 M
- AZ's Brilinta - Projected $2.52 B and new $865 M
- Amylin's Bydureon - Projected $1.66 B and new $615 M
- Vivus's Qysmia - Projected $1.13 B and new $437 M
- Genentech's Actemra - Projected $2.25 B and Actual $896 M
This proves that analysts are too bullish, and tend to overestimate the mark (a lot like marketing research). It may also be reflective of a changing healthcare environment that wants to see actual value for its expenditures. If you can't be what's already on the market cost effectively, then we don't want to buy it.
Posted by Bruce Lehr Apr 10th 2013.