Here is an analysis by Fitch Ratings projecting how many new drugs the FDA will approve in 2012. Fitch creates its estimate by following the activities of Abbott, Amgen, AstraZeneca, Bayer, BMS, Eli Lilly, GSK, J&J, Merck, Pfizer, Roche, and Sanofi.
Their prediction for 2012 is that it won't match the 30 approvals seen in 2011. Year to date, there have been 14 new approvals in 2012 versus 18 for the same period in 2011. And, filings are down for the second half of 2012. So expect a down year compared to last says Fitch.
So much for a reinvogorated pharma R&D model and pipeline -- at least using these numbers as "the evidence" as many commentators did in 2011. On the other hand, Fitch's analysis also depends on the above companies being the representative market basket of filers -- if that mix starts to change radically then using it as the sole indicator will result in flawed projections. One could argue other firms could be included in the mix.
Posted by Bruce Lehr Jul 26th 2012.