According to the Wall Street Journal's interview of several wise guys in the institutional investment community? NO.
"These drugs are long shot lottery tickets." "Not playing. A fool's game. I have no confidence that we are anywhere near the technology to address the disease." "It's too critical not to be there -- risk/reward for the pharma group is still skewed to the upside."
Needless to say, we can be thankful most analysts aren't drug developers. They're not likely to be successful with that skepticism quotient.
In the meantime, Lilly and Pfizer keep plugging away in Phase III studies with solanezumab abd bapineuzumab respectively. Both are expecting key results late this year. At that time, we'll see if either has won their bet (as well as the patients targeted for therapy). If not?
The analysts say Lilly stock will drop to $37.40 (12%) and Pfizer will go down to $21.30 (6%). And Lilly's Elan would plummet 30% to $9.80. Just some more cheery news for your weekend.
Posted by Bruce Lehr Jun 22nd 2012.