Here's a pessimistic piece that appeared in Phamagossip last week quoting an analyst from Bernstein Research as saying that Eli Lilly's revenue will be taking such a hit from upcoming patent expirations that the Company will have no choice but to acquire someone or be acquired. No shades of grey there, eh?
The analysis said Lilly's $21.7 B in sales in 2010 could plummet to as low as $9.7 B in 2020 if a doomsday scenario develops -- i.e. drugs go off patent and their pipeline fails. Yeah, and if I go swimming tonight with my hands and feet tied, I could drown. Using similar, analytical skills, Bernstein also called out AZ and Pfizer as two others who are about to take the plunge. Interestingly, the analyis predicted Pfizer's revenue plummet would be even worse if it activated Ian Read's divestiture plan to focus on its "core pharma business." That's cheery.
Posted by Bruce Lehr Sep 26th 2011.