According to a new IMS Health report, global spending on pharmaceuticals will reach $1.1 trillion by 2015, which represents a 3-6% compound annual growth rate over the next 5 years. This is lower than the 6.2 percent that was realized between 2005 and 2010.
Slower growth will be fueled by less spending in the United States, patent expirations of big selling drugs, government price controls and price reductions, and increased generic competition. Emerging markets are expected to double in size to between $285 B and $315 B up from $151 B in 2010. In fact emerging markets are expected to be larger than the combined market represented by Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the UK.
Further, IMS says that brand name drugmakers sales will remain flat from 2010 to 2015 -- and branded market share will slide to 53% from its current 64% (and way down from 70% in 2005). This is due to the emergence of generics. Generics will account for 80 cents of every dollar spent in the emerging markets and will grow by $47 B in these markets. Drugs coming off patent will result in $98 B in savings to payers from 2010 to 2015, nearly double the total from 2005 to 2010. And by 2015, IMS predicts that biosimilars will actually have sales of $2 B or about 1% of the global market.
Posted by Bruce Lehr May 18th 2011.