IMS's message regarding the 2011 pharma market? Don't expect major growth in the Western markets and do expect high double digit growth (15-17%) in pharmerging markets - consistent with recent past. The total global market size will reach $880 B. The US will remain the number one market at $330 B - 37.5% of the world total - and grow at modest 3-5%.
The 17 pharmerging countries will not only grow at 15-17% but will constitute $180 B in sales or 20% of the world market. China will grow at a near meteoric 25-27% to a size of $50 B and is NOW the 3rd largest market in the world. Japan will also grow a relatively robust (for an established market) 5-7%.
The European perspective doesn't look nearly as rosy. The Five Major EU markets - Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the UK - will only grow at 1-3%, as will North America's Canada. Suppressed revenue growth is no doubt affected by heavy price controls being enacted in Europe and also reflects the impact of generics availability. Spain and Canada are poster children for the combined impact of price controls and generics emergence.
One piece of good news for some drug innovators - despite a number of venerable drug franchises reaching their patent expiry and therefore seeing their share attacked by generics - there are 5 new potential blockbusters (projected sales > $1 B) expected to be launched in 2011. Cling to that thought.
Posted by Bruce Lehr October 8th 2010.