Lipitor will be out. Which drug will replace it as the new undisputed pharmaceutical blockbuster sales leader in the clubhouse in 2016?
According to this set of industry analysts (as opposed to a set last month or next month), it will NOT be Avastin, Enbrel or Rituxan - but they will be in the hunt.
No the owner of the GREEN dollar will be Abbott/Esai's Humira. At an estimated $10.1 B, it will hold a healthy lead over Roche's Avastin at $8.9 B. However, it is slightly more than $2 B less than Lipitor's current $12.3 B sales. Lipitor is expected to plummet out of the top 10 when generic competition can attack its share.
As a company, Pfizer is expected to hang on to a very narrow lead as the number one pharma seller at $47.1 B representing a very slight lead over Merck's predicted $46.3 B. Abbott will climb to number 7 position at $26.1 B - a huge portion of which is Humira. For all the rankings, see Pharmalot blog.
Posted by Bruce Lehr May 3rd 2010.
Here's thepharmaletter's take on the same story. It's funny to see Pfizer being touted to reign supreme with their CAGR from 2009-2016 being projected at -2% - "growing" from $55.3 B to $47.1 B (huh?). I'm not sure "reign supreme" would be adjective I'd use - especially if I'm a stockholder - which I'm not.
http://bit.ly/ausf4Y
Posted by: Bruce Lehr | 05/04/2010 at 12:16 PM
More on this topic from the WSJ blog. http://bit.ly/cHvSoN
Posted by: Bruce Lehr | 05/03/2010 at 09:15 PM